Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 58.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 17.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.