Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 43.36%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 27.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.88%) and 1-2 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.