Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 50.75%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 19.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.49%) and 2-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.14%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.