Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 54.07%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (7.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match.