Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 66.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 11.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.29%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (5.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.