Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 50.22%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Talleres had a probability of 23.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Talleres win it was 0-1 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.