Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.84%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Lanus win was 1-0 (11.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Boca Juniors in this match.