Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 38.13%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (11.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Boca Juniors in this match.