Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 56.33%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Union had a probability of 16.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.75%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.04%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (7.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boca Juniors in this match.