Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT Stade 26 Mars
  • Martial Tia 5' goal
  • Dorgeles Nene  39' goal
  • Dorgeles Nene  51' goal
  • Aliou Dieng 82' yellowcard
  • goal Sidny Lopes Cabral 10'
  • yellowcard Roberto Lopes  47'
  • yellowcard Kevin Lenini 58'

Mali vs Cape Verde - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Cape Verde

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 51.44%. A draw had a probability of 25.92% and a win for Cape Verde had a probability of 22.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%) , while for a Cape Verde win it was 0-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.

Result

Mali 51.44%
Draw 25.92%
Cape Verde 22.64%

Both Teams to Score: 

44.48%

Goals

Over 1.5 68.42% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 31.58% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 2.5 42.52% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 2.5 57.48% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 3.5 23.27%
Under 3.5 76.73%
Over 4.5 13.06%
Under 4.5 86.94%

First Half Winner

Mali 35.34%
Draw 45.07%
Cape Verde 19.6%

Team To Score First

Mali 58.65%
No Goal 9.31%
Cape Verde 32.04%

Corners

Over 8 40.87%
Equal 8 11.62%
Under 8 47.51%
Over 9 30.5%
Equal 9 10.37%
Under 9 59.13%
Over 10.5 21.93%
Under 10.5 78.07%

Mali Goals

Over 1.5 43.1%
Under 1.5 56.9%
Over 2.5 19.68%
Under 2.5 80.32%
Over 3.5 7.26%
Under 3.5 92.74%

Cape Verde Goals

Over 0.5 54.83%
Under 0.5 45.17%
Over 1.5 20.55%
Under 1.5 79.45%
Over 2.5 6.01%
Under 2.5 93.99%
Over 3.5 1.74%
Under 3.5 98.26%

Score analysis

Mali 51.43%
Draw 25.93%
Cape Verde 22.64%
Mali
1-0 @ 13.88% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 9.84% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 8.52% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.89%
3-1 @ 4.88%
3-2 @ 2.17%
Other @ 7.25%
Total : 51.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.49% ▼ (-0.01)
0-0 @ 9.31%
2-2 @ 3.64%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.93%
Cape Verde
0-1 @ 8.39%
1-2 @ 5.16% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.57% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.7% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.42%
Other @ 1.73%
Total : 22.64%