Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 60.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.73% and a win for Mali had a probability of 15.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.18%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%) , while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.