Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 71.98%. A draw had a probability of 18.36% and a win for Nicaragua had a probability of 9.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.82%) and 3-0 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%) , while for a Nicaragua win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.