Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 64.07%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Western United had a probability of 17.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.91%) and 1-3 (7.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for a Western United win it was 2-1 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Melbourne City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Melbourne City.
Result | ||
Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
17.52% ( 0.1) | 18.41% ( 0.09) | 64.07% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 63.41% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.67% ( -0.26) | 30.32% ( 0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.42% ( -0.31) | 51.57% ( 0.31) |
Western United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.71% ( -0.07) | 30.28% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.54% ( -0.08) | 66.45% ( 0.06) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.95% ( -0.12) | 9.05% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.21% ( -0.28) | 30.78% ( 0.27) |
Score Analysis |
Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
2-1 @ 4.7% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0) 2-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.47% Total : 17.52% | 1-1 @ 7.86% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0) 0-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.36% Total : 18.41% | 1-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 7.57% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 6.33% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 4.55% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 3.81% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.72% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 2.18% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 2-5 @ 1.31% ( -0.02) 3-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.25% Total : 64.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 27 | 20 | 52 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 38 |
6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
7 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 38 | 11 | 36 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 22 |
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