Australian A-League | Gameweek 20

Mar 12, 2023 at 4am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
2 - 1
Brisbane Roar

O'Neill (22', 88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

O'Shea (80' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Adelaide United 4-2 Melbourne City
Friday, March 3 at 8.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Brisbane Roar

All competitions

Last Game: Macarthur 3-2 Brisbane Roar
Sunday, March 5 at 4am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a Brisbane Roar win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Brisbane Roar
66.12% ( -0.38)	18.89% ( 0.23)	15% ( 0.15)

Both teams to score 55.39% (

-0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.15% (

-0.77)

37.85% (

0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.9% (

-0.83)

60.1% (

0.83)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.34% (

-0.31)

10.66% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.48% (

-0.7)

34.52% (

0.7)

Brisbane Roar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62% (

-0.29)

38% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.24% (

-0.28)

74.76% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 66.11%

Brisbane Roar 15%

Draw 18.89%

Melbourne City	Draw	Brisbane Roar
2-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.07) Other @ 4.57% Total : 66.11%	1-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.15) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.17% Total : 18.89%	1-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.92% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 1.9% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 2.04% Total : 15%