Australian A-League | Gameweek 26

Apr 28, 2023 at 10.45am UK

AAMI Park

Melbourne City
3 - 2
Western Sydney

Tilio (49', 90+3'), MacLaren (75')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Borrello (41'), Milanovic (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian A-League clash between Melbourne City and Western Sydney Wanderers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Western Utd 1-3 Melbourne City
Saturday, April 22 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Western Sydney Wanderers

All competitions

Last Game: Western Sydney 4-0 Wellington
Friday, April 21 at 10.45am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 57.4%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Western Sydney Wanderers had a probability of 21.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.52%) and 1-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Western Sydney Wanderers win it was 1-2 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Melbourne City	Draw	Western Sydney Wanderers
57.4% ( 1.21)	21.31% ( -0.34)	21.29% ( -0.87)

Both teams to score 59.44% (

-0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.54% (

0.45)

38.46% (

-0.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.25% (

0.48)

60.75% (

-0.48)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.76% (

0.52)

13.24% (

-0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.99% (

1.03)

40% (

-1.04)

Western Sydney Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.51% (

-0.52)

31.49% (

0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.12% (

-0.61)

67.88% (

0.61)

Score Analysis

Melbourne City 57.4%

Western Sydney Wanderers 21.29%

Draw 21.31%

Melbourne City	Draw	Western Sydney Wanderers
2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.14) 1-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.2) 3-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.08) 5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.65% Total : 57.4%	1-1 @ 9.74% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.31%	1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.63% Total : 21.29%