Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lahti win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lahti win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.29%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lahti in this match.