Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gnistan win with a probability of 51.72%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 24.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gnistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gnistan would win this match.