Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gnistan win with a probability of 46.77%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gnistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gnistan would win this match.