Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 35.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.68%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 1-0 (11.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Argentina in this match.