Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Qatar had a probability of 33.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Qatar win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that United Arab Emirates would win this match.