Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 80.53%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 5.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (12.44%) and 0-1 (11.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.36%), while for a Nepal win it was 1-0 (2.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that United Arab Emirates would win this match.