Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for United Arab Emirates had a probability of 29.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%).