Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 42.94%. A win for Kuwait had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (8.01%). The likeliest Kuwait win was 1-0 (9.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.