Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 44.26%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Wales had a probability of 27.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.