We said: North Macedonia 1-1 Wales
Albeit against lower-ranked opponents, North Macedonia have been flying for several months now - and they boast several threats across the final third.
So, an improving Wales side will have to tread carefully away to one of their main Group J rivals, and they might end up being grateful to take one point.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 44.26%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Wales had a probability of 27.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.91%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.