World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage

Mar 22, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Wales
3 - 1
Kazakhstan

James (9'), Davies (47'), Matondo (90')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Tagybergen (32' pen.)
Samorodov (42'), Chesnokov (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's World Cup Qualifying clash between Wales and Kazakhstan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions

Last Game: Wales 4-1 Iceland
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Wales	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Turkey	0	0	0
4	Iceland	0	0	0

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Last Game: Kazakhstan 2-0 Curacao
Wednesday, March 19 at 4.30pm in International Friendlies

Current League B3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Kazakhstan	0	0	0
2	Austria	0	0	0
3	Norway	0	0	0
4	Slovenia	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 86.97%. A draw had a probability of 9.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 3.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.63%) and 1-0 (10.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.49%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (1.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.

Result
Wales	Draw	Kazakhstan
86.97% ( 1.29)	9.75% ( -0.88)	3.28% ( -0.42)

Both teams to score 32.56% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.04% (

35.96% (

-2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.94% (

2.17)

58.06% (

-2.17)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.36% (

0.64)

5.64% (

-0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

78.15% (

1.81)

21.85% (

-1.81)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

34.5% (

-0.66)

65.5% (

0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

6.78% (

-0.28)

93.21% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Wales 86.94%

Kazakhstan 3.28%

Draw 9.75%

Wales	Draw	Kazakhstan
2-0 @ 15.26% ( -0.33) 3-0 @ 14.63% ( 0.24) 1-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.65) 4-0 @ 10.52% ( 0.56) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.3) 3-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.54) 4-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.14) 6-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.36) 5-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.04) 6-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.13) 7-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.19) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 86.94%	1-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.39) 0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.38) 2-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.2% Total : 9.75%	0-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.77% Total : 3.28%