UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League B

Nov 19, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Wales
4 - 1
Iceland

Cullen (32', 45+1'), Johnson (65'), Wilson (79')
Bellamy (59'), James (68'), Johnson (72'), Thomas (88')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Gudjohnsen (7')
Sampsted (30'), Fridriksson (66'), Dagur Thorsteinsson (72'), Ingvi Traustason (72'), Bergmann Johannesson (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Wales and Iceland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Turkey 0-0 Wales
Saturday, November 16 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Wales	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Turkey	0	0	0
4	Iceland	0	0	0

Iceland

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Montenegro 0-2 Iceland
Saturday, November 16 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League B4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Wales	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Turkey	0	0	0
4	Iceland	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 64.17%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 14.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.

Result
Wales	Draw	Iceland
64.17% ( 0.01)	20.9% ( -0.02)	14.93% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 48.34% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.91% (

0.12)

47.09% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.67% (

0.11)

69.33% (

-0.11)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.03% (

0.04)

13.96% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.54% (

0.08)

41.45% (

-0.08)

Iceland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.18% (

0.09)

43.81% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.03% (

0.08)

79.97% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Wales 64.16%

Iceland 14.93%

Draw 20.9%

Wales	Draw	Iceland
1-0 @ 12.04% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 11.85% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.78% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.83% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.51% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.59% Total : 64.16%	1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.81% Total : 20.9%	0-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.1% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.08% 1-3 @ 1.13% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.46% Total : 14.93%