Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Philippines had a probability of 23.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.77%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Philippines win was 0-1 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Indonesia would win this match.