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World Cup

Iraq national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round
Nov 16, 2023 at 2.45pm UK
Basra Athletics Stadium
Indonesia national football team

Iraq
5 - 1
Indonesia

Resan (20'), Amat (35' og.), Rashid (60'), Amyn (81'), Al-Hamadi (88')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Pattynama (45+3')
Klok (65'), Mangkualam (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Iraq and Indonesia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iraq

Last Game: Iraq 2-2 Jordan (0-0 pen.)
Tuesday, October 17 at 3.30pm in International Friendlies

Indonesia

Last Game: Brunei 0-6 Indonesia
Tuesday, October 17 at 1.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indonesia win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Indonesia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Iraq win was 1-0 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.

Result
IraqDrawIndonesia
34.6% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)26.84% (0.0010000000000012 0)38.55% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Both teams to score 51.29% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.16% (-0.012 -0.01)53.83% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.7% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)75.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Iraq Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.44% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)29.55% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.42% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)65.57% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)
Indonesia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.8% (-0.012999999999991 -0.01)27.19% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.39% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)62.6% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Iraq 34.6%
    Indonesia 38.55%
    Draw 26.84%
IraqDrawIndonesia
1-0 @ 9.79% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-1 @ 7.78% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.97% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 3.16%
3-0 @ 2.43% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 2.06%
4-1 @ 0.96%
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 34.6%
1-1 @ 12.75%
0-0 @ 8.03% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 5.06% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.84%
0-1 @ 10.46%
1-2 @ 8.31% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 6.81% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-3 @ 3.61% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-3 @ 2.96% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 2.2% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-4 @ 1.17% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-4 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 38.55%

How you voted: Iraq vs Indonesia

Iraq
50.0%
Draw
15.4%
Indonesia
34.6%
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