Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 19.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a San Marino win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.