Welsh Premier League Gameweek 4
Aug 21, 2026 7.45pm
Ynys Park

Trefelin vs Caernarfon Town - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Trefelin

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Aug 14, 2026 7.45pm
Connah's Quay 6 - 0 Trefelin

Caernarfon Town

All competitions
Welsh Premier League
Last game
Aug 15, 2026 5.15pm
Caernarfon 3 - 0 Colwyn Bay

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Trefelin win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Caernarfon Town has a probability of 32.89% and a draw has a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Trefelin win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.54%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win is 1-2 (7.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.11%).

Result

Trefelin 43.96% (-0.01)
Draw 23.2%
Caernarfon Town 32.89% (+0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.17%

Goals

Over 1.5 81.15% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 18.85% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 60%
Under 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 39.04%
Under 3.5 60.96%
Over 4.5 24.09% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 75.91% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Trefelin 34.43%
Draw 38.03%
Caernarfon Town 27.55%

Team To Score First

Trefelin 51.6% (+0.01)
No Goal 5.07%
Caernarfon Town 43.33% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 69.87% (+0.02)
Equal 8 9.94%
Under 8 20.19% (-0.01)
Over 9 58.68% (+0.03)
Equal 9 11.2% (+0.01)
Under 9 30.13% (-0.02)
Over 10.5 47.18% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 52.82% (-0.01)

Trefelin Goals

Over 1.5 47.69%
Under 1.5 52.31%
Over 2.5 23.15%
Under 2.5 76.85%
Over 3.5 9.72%
Under 3.5 90.28%

Caernarfon Town Goals

Over 0.5 68.17% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 31.83% (-0.03)
Over 1.5 38.22% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 61.78% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 16.72% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 83.28% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.16%
Under 3.5 93.84%

Score analysis

Trefelin 43.96%
Draw 23.21%
Caernarfon Town 32.9%
Trefelin
2-1 @ 8.45%
1-0 @ 7.54%
2-0 @ 6.51% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 5.08%
3-2 @ 3.6%
3-0 @ 3.22%
Other @ 9.56%
Total : 43.96%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.11%
2-2 @ 6.34%
0-0 @ 5.07%
3-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 23.21%
Caernarfon Town
1-2 @ 7.05%
0-1 @ 6.31%
0-2 @ 4.51% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 3.54%
2-3 @ 3.24% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 2.25%
Other @ 6%
Total : 32.9%