Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pontypridd Town AFC win with a probability of 56.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 19.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pontypridd Town AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pontypridd Town AFC would win this match.