Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 1, 2026 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Cardiff City Stadium
  • Jordan James 37' yellowcard
  • Daniel James 38' goal
  • Neco Williams 48' goal
  • Ethan Ampadu  90'+3' yellowcard
  • Sorba Thomas 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Oscar Bobb 11'
  • redcard Torbjørn Heggem 46'
  • yellowcard Martin Ødegaard  90'+3'

Wales vs Norway - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Norway

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Norway 3 - 2 Denmark

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Wales had a probability of 32.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Wales win was 1-0 (7.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.

Result

Wales 32.29% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 24.57%
Norway 43.15% ▼ (-0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.15% ▲ (+0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.28%
Under 1.5 24.72%
Over 2.5 52.68% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 47.32% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 31.14%
Under 3.5 68.86%
Over 4.5 19.04%
Under 4.5 80.96%

First Half Winner

Wales 31.35%
Draw 38.14%
Norway 30.51%

Team To Score First

Wales 49.13%
No Goal 7.27% ▼ (-0.02)
Norway 43.6% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 49.73%
Equal 8 11.07%
Under 8 39.2%
Over 9 39.11%
Equal 9 10.62%
Under 9 50.27%
Over 10.5 29.68%
Under 10.5 70.32%

Wales Goals

Over 1.5 33.97% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 66.03% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 15.59% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 84.41% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 5.55% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 94.45% ▲ (+0.02)

Norway Goals

Over 0.5 73.25% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 0.5 26.75% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 41.96% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 58.04% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 18.72% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 81.28% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 7.16% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 92.84% ▲ (+0.03)

Score analysis

Wales 32.29%
Draw 24.56%
Norway 43.14%
Wales
1-0 @ 7.25%
2-1 @ 6.69% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 4.27%
3-1 @ 3.44% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.69% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.64%
Other @ 5.31%
Total : 32.29%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.97% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.27% ▼ (-0.02)
2-2 @ 4.81%
3-3 @ 1.27%
Other @ 0.24% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 24.56%
Norway
0-1 @ 10.19% ▼ (-0.05)
1-2 @ 8.37% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 7.37% ▼ (-0.05)
1-3 @ 3.85%
0-3 @ 3.83% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 6.92% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 43.14%