Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 48.67%. A draw had a probability of 28.93% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.34%) and 1-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.26%) , while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.