Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 49.7%. A draw had a probability of 27.77% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 22.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.