Nations League Gameweek 3
Ukraine
Oct 2, 2026 7.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Štadión Antona Malatinského
N. Ireland
  • Mykola Matvienko 57' yellowcard
  • Matviy Ponomarenko 88' yellowcard
  • Danylo Sikan 88' yellowcard
  • goal Ciaron Brown 9'
  • goal Isaac Price 22'
  • goal Ciaron Brown 61'
  • yellowcard Brodie Spencer 64'

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Ukraine

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 7.45pm
Hungary 0 - 1 Ukraine

Northern Ireland

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Georgia 0 - 1 N. Ireland

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 45.08%. A draw had a probability of 28.13% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 26.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%) , while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result

Ukraine 45.08% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 28.13% ▼ (-0.20)
Northern Ireland 26.79% ▲ (+0.13)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.67% ▲ (+0.54)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.14% ▲ (+0.58)
Under 1.5 31.86% ▼ (-0.58)
Over 2.5 42.31% ▲ (+0.68)
Under 2.5 57.69% ▼ (-0.68)
Over 3.5 21.21% ▲ (+0.54)
Under 3.5 78.79% ▼ (-0.53)
Over 4.5 11.32% ▲ (+0.33)
Under 4.5 88.68% ▼ (-0.32)

First Half Winner

Ukraine 36.04%
Draw 45.17%
Northern Ireland 18.79%

Team To Score First

Ukraine 56.78% ▲ (+0.18)
No Goal 9.91% ▼ (-0.27)
Northern Ireland 33.31% ▲ (+0.11)

Corners

Over 8 50.19%
Equal 8 11.53%
Under 8 38.27%
Over 9 39.12%
Equal 9 11.08%
Under 9 49.81%
Over 10.5 29.3%
Under 10.5 70.7%

Ukraine Goals

Over 1.5 38.97% ▲ (+0.41)
Under 1.5 61.03% ▼ (-0.41)
Over 2.5 16.38% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 2.5 83.62% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 3.5 5.73% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 3.5 94.27% ▼ (-0.15)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5 58.96% ▲ (+0.37)
Under 0.5 41.04% ▼ (-0.37)
Over 1.5 24.34% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 1.5 75.66% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 2.5 7.86% ▲ (+0.21)
Under 2.5 92.14% ▼ (-0.21)
Over 3.5 1.99% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 3.5 98.01% ▼ (-0.08)

Score analysis

Ukraine 45.08%
Draw 28.13%
Northern Ireland 26.79%
Ukraine
1-0 @ 12.75% ▼ (-0.20)
2-1 @ 8.55% ▲ (+0.06)
2-0 @ 8.43% ▼ (-0.06)
3-0 @ 4.46% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 3.82% ▲ (+0.07)
3-2 @ 1.58% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 5.49% ▲ (+0.13)
Total : 45.08%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.05% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 9.91% ▼ (-0.27)
2-2 @ 4.14% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.24% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 28.13%
Northern Ireland
0-1 @ 9.2% ▼ (-0.12)
1-2 @ 6.4% ▲ (+0.07)
0-2 @ 4.36%
1-3 @ 1.93% ▲ (+0.06)
0-3 @ 1.68% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.47% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 26.79%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Ukraine
Jun 3, 2021 7.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
N. Ireland
  • Oleksandr Zubkov 10' goal
  • Artem Besedin 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paddy McNair 90'+3'
International Friendlies
Ukraine
Jun 1, 2020 11.00pm
N. Ireland
European Championship
Ukraine
Jun 16, 2016 5.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Stade de Lyon
N. Ireland
  • Yevhen Seleznyov 40' yellowcard
  • Serhiy Sydorchuk 67' yellowcard
  • goal Gareth McAuley 49'
  • yellowcard Jamie Ward 63'
  • yellowcard Stuart Dallas 87'
  • yellowcard Jonny Evans 95'
  • goal Niall McGinn 96'

Form Data

Georgia 0 - 0 Ukraine
Hungary 0 - 1 Ukraine
Denmark 2 - 1 Ukraine
Poland 0 - 2 Ukraine
Ukraine 1 - 0 Albania
Ukraine 1 - 3 Sweden
N. Ireland 0 - 0 Hungary
Georgia 0 - 1 N. Ireland
France 3 - 1 N. Ireland
N. Ireland 1 - 0 Guinea
Wales 1 - 1 N. Ireland
Italy 2 - 0 N. Ireland