Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 39.99%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 34.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Sweden win was 0-1 (8.24%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.