UEFA Nations League

Nations League | Playoffs A/B | 1st Leg

Mar 20, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia

Ukraine
3 - 1
Belgium

(Belgium win 4-3 on aggregate)

Hutsuliak (66'), Vanat (73'), Zabarnyi (78')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Lukaku (40')
Tielemans (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Ukraine and Belgium, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ukraine

All competitions

Last Game: Albania 1-2 Ukraine
Tuesday, November 19 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League B1 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ukraine	0	0	0
2	Czech Republic	0	0	0
3	Georgia	0	0	0
4	Albania	0	0	0

Belgium

All competitions

Last Game: Israel 1-0 Belgium
Sunday, November 17 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	France	6	6	13
2	Italy	6	5	13
3	Belgium	6	-3	4
4	Israel	6	-8	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Ukraine had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.52%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Ukraine win was 1-0 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.

Result
Ukraine	Draw	Belgium
31.43% ( -0.24)	27.21% ( -0.05)	41.36% ( 0.3)

Both teams to score 49.37% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.1% (

0.13)

55.9% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.99% (

0.11)

77.01% (

-0.11)

Ukraine Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.28% (

-0.1)

32.72% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.73% (

-0.11)

69.27% (

0.12)

Belgium Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.38% (

0.22)

26.61% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.16% (

0.29)

61.84% (

-0.29)

Score Analysis

Ukraine 31.43%

Belgium 41.35%

Draw 27.2%

Ukraine	Draw	Belgium
1-0 @ 9.73% ( -0.08) 2-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 5.44% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 31.43%	1-1 @ 12.87% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.2%	0-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 7.63% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.76% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.09% Total : 41.35%