Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 36.36%. A draw had a probability of 32% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 31.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.38%) and 2-1 (6.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.21%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (13.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.