Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thun win with a probability of 48.86%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 29.11% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thun win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.44%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (6.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.