Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Young Boys win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 31.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Young Boys win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.24%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.