Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thun win with a probability of 61.4%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 18.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thun win was 1-2 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.91%) and 0-2 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%) , while for a FC Winterthur win it was 2-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.