Swiss Super League | Gameweek 35

May 10, 2025 at 7.30pm UK

Stadio di Cornaredo

Lugano
2 - 5
Basel

Bislimi (2'), Grgic (69' pen.)
Steffen (59'), Brault-Guillard (64'), Zanotti (75')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Ajeti (4'), Shaqiri (48', 51', 57'), Leroy (60')
Ajeti (33')
Ajeti (42')

Coverage of the Swiss Super League clash between Lugano and Basel.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions

Last Game: Luzern 0-2 Lugano
Sunday, May 4 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Basel

All competitions

Last Game: Basel 5-1 Servette
Sunday, May 4 at 3.30pm in Swiss Super League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.77%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.

Result
Lugano	Draw	Basel
32.79% ( -0.3)	22.96% ( 0.31)	44.25% ( -0)

Both teams to score 64.32% (

-1.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.28% (

-1.63)

36.72% (

1.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.12% (

-1.79)

58.88% (

1.79)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.58% (

-0.94)

22.42% (

0.94)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.06% (

-1.42)

55.94% (

1.43)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.91% (

-0.64)

17.09% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.71% (

-1.15)

47.29% (

1.15)

Score Analysis

Lugano 32.79%

Basel 44.25%

Draw 22.96%

Lugano	Draw	Basel
2-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.3) 2-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.32% Total : 32.79%	1-1 @ 10.12% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.3) 3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.96%	1-2 @ 8.94% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.39) 0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.22) 1-3 @ 5.26% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.22% Total : 44.25%