May 10, 2025 7.30pm

2

5

HT : 1 1

FT Stadio di Cornaredo

Uran Bislimi 2'
Renato Steffen 59'
Zachary Brault-Guillard 64'
Anto Grgic 69'
Mattia Zanotti 75'

Albian Ajeti 4'
Albian Ajeti 33'
Albian Ajeti 42'
Xherdan Shaqiri 48'
Xherdan Shaqiri 51'
Xherdan Shaqiri 57'
Leo Leroy 60'

Lugano vs Basel - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions

W
L
D
L
W
L

Swiss Super League

W
L
D
L
W
L

Last game

May 4, 2025 3.30pm

Luzern 0 - 2 Lugano

Goals scored

55

Top scorer

Anto Grgic

Basel

All competitions

W
W
W
W
W
W

Swiss Super League

W
W
W
W
W
W

Last game

May 4, 2025 3.30pm

Basel 5 - 1 Servette

Goals scored

91

Top scorer

Xherdan Shaqiri

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.77%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.

Result

Lugano 32.79% ▼ (-0.31)

Draw 22.96% ▲ (+0.31)

Basel 44.25% ▼ (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score:

64.32% ▼ (-1.29)

Goals

Over 2.5 63.28% ▼ (-1.63)

Under 2.5 36.72% ▲ (+1.64)

Over 3.5 41.12% ▼ (-1.80)

Under 3.5 58.88% ▲ (+1.80)

Over 4.5 23.05% ▼ (-1.48)

Under 4.5 76.95% ▲ (+1.49)

Lugano Goals

Over 0.5 77.58% ▼ (-0.94)

Under 0.5 22.42% ▲ (+0.94)

Over 1.5 44.06% ▼ (-1.43)

Under 1.5 55.94% ▲ (+1.43)

Basel Goals

Over 0.5 82.91% ▼ (-0.65)

Under 0.5 17.09% ▲ (+0.65)

Over 1.5 52.71% ▼ (-1.15)

Under 1.5 47.29% ▲ (+1.16)

Score analysis

Lugano 32.79%

Draw 22.96%

Basel 44.25%

Lugano

2-1 @ 7.57% ▲ (+0.03)

1-0 @ 5.73% ▲ (+0.30)

2-0 @ 4.28% ▲ (+0.11)

3-1 @ 3.77% ▼ (-0.10)

3-2 @ 3.33% ▼ (-0.16)

3-0 @ 2.14% ▼ (-0.01)

4-1 @ 1.41% ▼ (-0.08)

4-2 @ 1.25% ▼ (-0.10)

Other @ 3.32%

Total : 32.79%

Draw

1-1 @ 10.12% ▲ (+0.32)

2-2 @ 6.68% ▼ (-0.13)

0-0 @ 3.83% ▲ (+0.30)

3-3 @ 1.96% ▼ (-0.14)

Other @ 0.36%

Total : 22.96%

Basel

1-2 @ 8.94% ▲ (+0.09)

0-1 @ 6.77% ▲ (+0.40)

0-2 @ 5.98% ▲ (+0.23)

1-3 @ 5.26% ▼ (-0.07)

2-3 @ 3.94% ▼ (-0.17)

0-3 @ 3.52% ▲ (+0.06)

1-4 @ 2.33% ▼ (-0.08)

2-4 @ 1.74% ▼ (-0.12)

0-4 @ 1.56% ▼ (-0.01)

Other @ 4.22%

Total : 44.25%

Head to Head

Apr 6, 2025 3.30pm

2

0

HT : 0 0

FT St. Jakob-Park (Basel)

Xherdan Shaqiri 12'
Albian Ajeti 33'
Metinho 39'
Xherdan Shaqiri 63'
Marin Soticek 82'

Lars Lukas Mai 45'+2'
Uran Bislimi 87'

Jan 19, 2025 3.30pm

2

2

HT : 1 1

FT Stadio di Cornaredo

Anto Grgic 45'+2'
Albian Hajdari 54'
Renato Steffen 57'
Zachary Brault-Guillard 90'+3'

Kevin Carlos 24'
Joe Mendes 28'
Leo Leroy 36'
Dominik Schmid 42'
Moussa Cisse 74'
Xherdan Shaqiri 87'

Jul 27, 2024 7.30pm

1

2

HT : 0 1

FT Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Leo Leroy 50'
Leo Leroy 59'

Ignacio Aliseda 8'
Albian Hajdari 53'
Kacper Przybylko 69'

Apr 2, 2024 7.30pm

2

0

HT : 1 0

FT Stadio di Cornaredo

Renato Steffen 41'
Albian Hajdari 44'
Roman Macek 52'
Renato Steffen 69'

Mohamed Drager 55'
Dion Kacuri 55'
Jean-Kevin Augustin 64'
Axel Kayombo 66'
Fabian Frei 67'

Feb 3, 2024 7.30pm

0

1

HT : 0 0

FT St. Jakob-Park

Nicolas Vouilloz 64'

Renato Steffen 69'
Milton Valenzuela 72'
Uran Bislimi 81'
Zan Celar 89'

Dec 6, 2023 7.30pm

1

3

HT : 0 1

FT Stadio di Cornaredo

Roman Macek 25'
Renato Steffen 49'
Roman Macek 54'
Shkelqim Vladi 77'
Amir Saipi 89'

Dominik Schmid 18'
Kevin Ruegg 21'
Jonathan Dubasin 29'
Dorde Jovanovic 61'
Mirko Salvi 86'
Renato Veiga 89'
Leon Avdullahu 89'
Leon Avdullahu 89'
Romeo Beney 90'+2'

Form Data

Luzern 0 - 2 Lugano

Lausanne 2 - 0 Lugano

Lugano 1 - 1 St Gallen

Basel 2 - 0 Lugano

Yverdon Sport 0 - 2 Lugano

Lugano 0 - 2 Servette

Basel 5 - 1 Servette

Basel 5 - 0 Yverdon Sport

FC Zurich 0 - 4 Basel

Basel 2 - 0 Lugano

Basel 2 - 1 Grasshopper

Winterthur 0 - 2 Basel