Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 50.45%. A win for FC Zurich had a probability of 27.51% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.94%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest FC Zurich win was 2-1 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.