Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 16.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.01%) and 0-1 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.57%), while for a FC Winterthur win it was 2-1 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.