Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for St Gallen had a probability of 36.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.53%) and 0-2 (5.42%). The likeliest St Gallen win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.