Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 60.79%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Grasshopper Zurich had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.12%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Grasshopper Zurich win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.