Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 52.87%. A win for Servette had a probability of 24.1% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Servette win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.