Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 42.24%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 33.15% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.