Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Como win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Modena had a probability of 26.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Como win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Como would win this match.