Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.67%. A win for Palermo had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Palermo win was 0-1 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.